Monday, March 24, 2008

Housing Correction

I just heard an advertisement on the radio that TD Canada Trust is giving 7% cash back on mortgages. And I was thinking... hmm... what's with the added incentive.

The first thing that came to mind was the domestic automotive fiasco where american car companies were giving out high incentive to buy domestic. Eventually it became a game of who had the best incentives. And as soon as the incentive was removed, buyers explored non-american options.

So why the mortgage incentive? I believe it's a sign of weak demand on mortgages, most likely due to prices being out of hand. At 50% of typical incomes, housing is at its highest point since the last market correction in 1990. I was only 9 years old at the time, so i was oblivious to what was going on. But at the ripe age of 26, I'm getting a better understanding of fundamental supply & demand economics.

I have to believe that 1 of 2 things must happen to avoid housing price correction. 1. we get paid more real dollars. 2. see number 1.

Friday, March 14, 2008

History Repeats Its Self

http://www.globeinvestor.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080314.wafford0314/GIStory/

Just have to look a the numbers, the facts. Financial markets behave in cyclical patterns. Stock markets and housing are just two of the components effecting these. Think about it.

Thursday, January 24, 2008

The Bank of Canada and the US Fed.

Both say no recession, both say "only economic slowdown".

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/01/18/2141148.htm

http://www.globeinvestor.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080124.wboc0124/GIStory/

We shall see.

Tuesday, January 22, 2008

enginvestor.blogspot.com

Recently I've been getting more involved in the investment industry. Okay to be honest, I've only been studying for a finance exam that is mostly theoretical, and reading a few articles here and there. But I figured I needed a good place to keep my thoughts, insights, opinions, and reference url links, thus enginvestor.blogspot.com.

Economic history dictates that the economy is cyclical. To me the trick is finding out how long each portion of the cycle lasts. This blog should be able to help me (in the future) identify the events during certain portions of the cycle. Of course this means I need to blog for the full duration of a cycle in order to optimize the benefit of this blog.